Respon Tekanan Stagflasi terhadap Keputusan Investasi Domestik: Analisis Empiris dan Implikasi Manajemen Keuangan Regional

Maudy Saharani; Klara Tika; Ipe Saripah; Edy Suroso; Abdul Mutolib

doi:10.47709/jebma.v6i2.8331

Authors

Maudy Saharani Program Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Pascasarjana, Universitas Siliwangi
Klara Tika Program Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Pascasarjana, Universitas Siliwangi
Ipe Saripah Program Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Pascasarjana, Universitas Siliwangi
Edy Suroso Program Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Pascasarjana, Universitas Siliwangi
Abdul Mutolib Program Magister Agribisnis, Fakultas Pascasarjana, Universitas Siliwangi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v6i2.8331

Keywords:

Inflasi, Investasi Domestik, Nilai Tukar, Pengangguran, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh indikator tekanan stagflasi terhadap keputusan investasi domestik di Indonesia dengan menggunakan kerangka tekanan stagflasi sebagai pendekatan analisis terpadu. Dalam beberapa dekade terakhir, perekonomian Indonesia mengarah pada indikasi tekanan stagflasi yang tercermin dari perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi yang fluktuatif, serta tekanan pada pasar tenaga kerja. Kondisi ini meningkatkan ketidakpastian makroekonomi dan berpotensi mempengaruhi keputusan investasi domestik, serta menjadi tantangan bagi banyak negara berkembang karena dapat melemahkan iklim investasi dan pembentukan modal jangka panjang. Indikator tekanan stagflasi yang digunakan sebagai variabel bebas yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat pengangguran, inflasi dan nilai tukar. Sedangkan untuk variabel terikatnya yaitu keputusan investasi domestik yang menggunakan indikator data penanaman modal dalam negeri. Metode yang dipakai yaitu pendekatan kuantitatif menggunakan data time series dalam kurun waktu 2006–2024 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik dan World Bank serta dianalisis memakai regresi linear berganda. Penelitian ini menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap keputusan investasi domestic. Tingkat pengangguran dan inflasi memiliki pengaruh dengan arah negatif, serta nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh dengan arah positif. Investasi domestik terdistribusi secara berbeda di berbagai provinsi di Indonesia, mencerminkan variasi dinamika ekonomi regional. Untuk bisa menjaga keberlanjutan investasi domestic, stabilitas ekonomi makro menjadi hal utama. Temuan ini menunjukkan tekanan stagflasi dapat menjadi sinyal peringatan dini terhadap kinerja investasi di negara berkembang.

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