Pengaruh Investasi, Belanja Pemerintah, dan Tenaga Kerja terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi melalui Ekspor

Muhammad Ifdal; Erni Panca Kurniasih; Hendarmin

doi:10.47709/jebma.v6i3.9870

Authors

Muhammad Ifdal Tanjungpura University
Erni Panca Kurniasih Tanjungpura University
Hendarmin Tanjungpura University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v6i3.9870

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh investasi, belanja pemerintah, dan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui ekspor pada provinsi di Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data panel 34 provinsi selama periode 2021–2025. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel, analisis jalur, dan Uji Sobel untuk mengidentifikasi pengaruh langsung serta peran mediasi ekspor. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa investasi dan tenaga kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor, sedangkan belanja pemerintah berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan. Pada model pertumbuhan ekonomi, investasi dan ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, belanja pemerintah berpengaruh positif tetapi tidak signifikan, sedangkan tenaga kerja berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Ekspor terbukti memediasi pengaruh investasi dan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi tidak memediasi pengaruh belanja pemerintah. Kebaruan penelitian terletak pada penempatan ekspor sebagai variabel intervening yang menjelaskan mekanisme transmisi faktor domestik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi regional. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya investasi produktif, peningkatan produktivitas tenaga kerja, dan penguatan aktivitas ekonomi berorientasi ekspor dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah.

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