Prediction of Crime Cases in 2025 in India Using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model Method

Annisa karima; Anni Zulfia; T. Sukma Achriadi Sukiman; Athiyatul Ulya

doi:10.47709/brilliance.v5i1.5745

Authors

Annisa karima Universitas Malikussaleh, Indonesia
Anni Zulfia Universitas Malikussaleh, Indonesia
T. Sukma Achriadi Sukiman Universitas Malikussaleh, Indonesia
Athiyatul Ulya Universitas Malikussaleh, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/brilliance.v5i1.5745

Keywords:

Crime, case, Fuzzy Time Series, Chen, Prediction

Abstract

India's natural beauty and culture, which attract the attention of international tourists, are less able to increase tourist visits due to high crime cases. Tourists' fear of visiting the country has a direct impact on decreasing economic turnover, so the local economy has become very low. Predictions of criminal cases aim to provide an overview of cases that will occur in the next period, therefore the government can take appropriate policies to reduce crime cases. These predictions enable policymakers to plan strategic and data-based preventive measures. The method used is the Fuzzy Time Series Model Chen, because this method can overcome data uncertainty, and offers simplicity and ease in application. Valid and credible criminal statistics data in India is obtained from the site www.kaggle.com. A trusted platform that provides various quality datasets. This data will be used as a basis for the analysis and prediction of criminal cases in India. The results of this research show that in the range of 60 months from January 2020 to December 2024 using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model method to predict the number of criminal cases in India produced predictions in January 2025 with cases of 188.36 cases with a MAPE error ratio of 9.08% which is included in outstanding forecasting category.

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