Flood Prediction Using Support Vector Regression (Case Study of Floodgates in Jakarta)

Abstract

Flood can be interpreted as an event that occurs suddenly and quickly enough where the water discharge in the drainage channel cannot be accommodated, so that the blocked area causes the water discharge in the drainage channel in several surrounding areas to overflow and is one of the natural disasters that occurs at an unexpected time and cannot be prevented, because of this, a prediction must be made to detect floods for the next day. Flood prediction is a crucial aspect of disaster management and mitigation, particularly in flood-prone areas such as Jakarta, Indonesia. This study aims to leverage Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict flood events by analyzing various environmental and hydrological factors that influence flooding. The primary data sources include historical wheater data, river water levels, floodgate positions in Jakarta. The data preprocessing involved cleaning, handling missing values, and normalizing the datasets to ensure compatibility with the SVR model. Feature selection was conducted to identify the most relevant predictors of flooding, such as wheater data, and river water levels. The dataset was then split into training and testing sets, maintaining an 80-20 ratio to ensure robust model validation. An SVR model with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel was trained on the standardized training data. The model's performance was evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the primary metric. The RMSE produced in this study was 0.112 with an R Square accuracy of 0.977. The results indicated that the SVR model could effectively predict flood events with a reasonable degree of accuracy, demonstrating its potential as a valuable tool in flood forecasting.