Expert System Mediagnosa Hama On Phon Oil With Certainty Factor Method

- The process of palm oil culture is influenced by various factors, one of the which is the pest and disease factors. Generally the problem of farmers differentiating pests and diseases, this is dyed most of the farmers lack information and Rely on the experience of other farmers to Overcome the existing pest and disease problems. In handling pests and diseases, it is Necessary to have a farmer consilant who is Able to diagnose pests and diseases on oil palm trees. In this study, an expert system for diagnosing pests and diseases in plants palm tree, as well as providing various solutions for pests or diseases. The method used in this expert system is the Certainty Fators method. Certainty Method The factors was chosen Because this method is suitable in the process of Determining the identification of pests and diseases, and the result of this application is the percentage of the system. The percentage is influenced by the CF value Obtained from the system, the percentage of expert systems Consultations is taken from the highest yield as an alternative to other pests or diseases that attack crops of oil palm tree.


Introduction
certainty Factor(CF) is a clinical parameter values given MYCIN to show how much confidence. In the face of a problem often found answers that do not have full certainty. This uncertainty can be a probability or keboleh invented that depends on the outcome of an event. The results are uncertain due to two factors: the rules that are uncertain and the uncertain answer to a question posed by the system (Hengki Tamando Sitohang, 2014).

Expert system
The use of the concept of artificial intelligence, it is generally done to make the software in the field of expert systems, which is a program that acts as an advisory or consulting clever. An expert system is a computer system that combines basic knowledge, facts and search techniques to solve problems that typically require the expertise of an expert (Arifin et al, 2017). One application of artificial intelligence program is an expert system with a knowledge base that combines inference system, trying to duplicate the functions of an expert in a particular field of expertise. The system does not replace the position of an expert, but to popularize the knowledge and experience of an expert.

Basic Concepts of Expert Systems
Expert (Expert) is someone who is able to explain a response, learn new things about the subject matter (domain), rearrange knowledge if deemed necessary, break the rules if necessary, and determine whether or not relevant to their expertise. Diversion kehlian (Transferring expertise) of the experts to the computer then transferred again to other people who are not experts, it is this which is the main purpose of the expert system. This process requires four activities, namely: a. Additional knowledge (of experts or other resources) b. Representation of knowledge (to the computer) c. inference knowledge d. The transfer of knowledge to the user.
Knowledge is stored in the computer is called by the name of the knowledge base. There are two types of knowledge, namely the facts and procedures (usually in the form of rules).
One feature that should be owned by an expert system is the ability to reason. If the skills are already stored as a knowledge base and are readily available programs that can access the database, the computer must be programmed to make nferensi. The inference process is packaged in bentukmesin inference (inference engine). Most commercial expert system made in the form of rule based systems, where knowledge is stored in the form of rules. The rules are usually in the form of IF-THEN.
Another feature of expert systems is the ability to provide advice or recommend. It is this ability that distinguishes the expert system with a conventional system.,

Disease
Plant diseases is something that deviates from the normal state, quite obviously cause symptoms that can be seen, lowering the quality or economic value, and is the result of a long interaction (Grace Rukmana and Sugandi Saputra, 2011). Here are some examples of diseases that often occur in oil palm plantations: a. Leaf spotting diseases Biotic diseases which are found in the initial seeding is leaf spot disease caused by the fungus Curvularia sp., Cochlibolus carbonus, Drechslera halodes var elaeicolg Helminthosporium sp., Pestalotia sp., Cercospora SP. and Corticium solani (Semangun, 2000). b. Heading Disease Leaves Young plants are diseased leaves have many bends down in the middle pelepahnya. At this bend there is no child or a child leaves small leaves, or shredded. These symptoms begin to appear on the leaf. In here children are still folded leaves it looked rotten at the corner or the middle. For a while plants stunted but will eventually heal itself. However there are times when the plants are recovered had become a sore back, which will be cured permanently. Its Countermeasures namely by selecting sires that do not have the nature of this disease Karie but using a more healthy broodstock c. foul buds This disease can attack oil palm trees with symptoms mengering the shoots and when cleaved will emit a foul odor. The disease attacks a plant that went into production and has production. This disease can lead to death of the plant, and when the attack took place very quickly into the growing point. The cause of the disease the same as the cause of rot and fall fruit buds on the plant oil that is Phytophthora sp. (Semangun, 1990). Birds that by cutting the buds are attacked, and also be able to use fungicides and herbicides, but more effective is the cutting diseased buds.

Certainty Factor (Certainty Factor)
Factor

Research methods
The research design used by the author during a study at PTPN IV Adolina Perbaungan Bedagai Serdang is using descriptive analysis method. In the first stage the author conducted by collecting data and materials required in advance, and at a later stage writer process and discuss come to a conclusion that, ultimately, make a report to attach all the activities carried out during the research in PTPN IV Adolina Perbaungan District Serdang Bedagai.

Analysis
Pests and diseases. Besides influenced by environmental factors such as climate also caused by some other factor that is the lack of education and lack of technical guidance to farmers in giving initiative and motivation in managing their garden which resulted in a decline in production.

analysis Methods
The method used so that users' needs can be met by using certainty factor method. Certainty factor method is one method of certainty on the symptoms experienced. To ensure the certainty of the symptoms are described in the weights certainty.

Calculating the value of Certainty Facor
The order of the process undertaken in diagnosing pest on oil palm trees on this expert system is to first determine the value of expert and user whose aim is to get the value of CF for each symptom as in the following table:   This means that if oil palm trees have symptoms of G1 and G2 and G3 and G4 then the certainty factor calculation obtained the assurance level of the percentage of CF = 0.881 x 100% is 88%. That is very confident that the palm tree pests Nematodes.

Conclusion
Based on the above description that has been done about diagnosing pest in palm tree with certainty factor method, then penbulis be able to draw some conclusions as follows: a. Expert System generated in this study is the result of the analysis of knowledge and scientific experts to provide information and data onpest in palm treewhich was acquired in the form of rules that can later be traced and identified the possibility of pests that attack the palm trees that are implemented into the computerized system or intelligent applications. b. Development of Expert System was preceded by collecting some information and expert knowledge relating about the detection of clinical symptoms contained in the manifestation of pests in palm trees that later formed into the base or body of knowledge, then do the calculation process and the application of the method certainty factor to generate the level of susceptibility to pests and diseases of the symptoms identified.